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The Forecast on the Cash Flow under the Centralized Control of Enterprise Group Capital——Based on Time Series Analysis Method
Author(s): 
Pages: 42-44
Year: Issue:  12
Journal: Xi'an Finance

Keyword:  capital managementcash flowmodel comparison;
Abstract: When the management system of the centralized control of the capital is applied in an enterprise group, the capital management center, as the group’s internal operations, needs to focus on the daily cash flow. In order to meet the requirement of each unit of the group company for the capital and at the same time reduce the cost of holding cash, it is very necessary to effectively predict the demand for the amount of the cash. The paper uses the time series data of the amount of the daily capital demand of the capital management center of a group, and by means of ARMA model, GARCH(1, 1) model, EGARCH(1, 1) model and time series model sets up the model and compares the prediction effect of each method. The empirical results show that the EGARCH(1, 1) model can well predict the daily demand for the capital, which provides a valuable reference to planning the capital operations for the capital management center.
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