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The Impact of International Oil Price Shock on China’s Macroeconomic Stability——Empirical Facts and Theoretical Interpretation
Pages: 28-32
Year: Issue:  1
Journal: Xi'an Finance

Keyword:  international oil priceoutputmacro economy;
Abstract: Based on the structural vector auto-regression and spillover effect model and from different angle of views, the paper makes a research on the empirical facts of the relationship between the international oil price and the macroeconomic stability, and finds that the rise of the international oil price could push the inflation to rise, but it has no significant restraint to the output, and the spillover effects of the oil price on the output and inflation are relatively limited. Then based on the perspective of the general equilibrium theory, the paper constructs DSGE framework including energy price factors, introduces exogenous shocks such as technology,policy and international oil price etc., uses Bayesian estimation method and impulse response function, draws the conclusion that the empirical results is consistent with the above analysis, thus further enhances the reliability of the conclusion. The paper provides the assistance in deeply understanding the effect mechanism and influence characteristics of the fluctuations of the oil price on China’s macro economy, and has a positive theoretical and realistic significance for China to maintain economic stability and energy security.
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