Author(s): TONG Yufen, LI Yumei, LIU Chuanqi, School of Labor Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, School of Management, Guizhou Minzu University
Pages: 12-21
Year: 2014 Issue:  6
Journal: Population & Economics
Keyword:  urbanization; rural-urban migration; aging; trends;
Abstract: The research observes trends in urban and rural population aging using census and statistics and predict the future using multi-regional population forecasting model. The results show that aging issue indicated an increasing trend in both areas. Specifically,migration between rural and urban areas makes great contributions to boost aging in the local region. In terms of aging,the more active rural-urban migration is,the faster the future population of the elder in urban grows.Correspondingly,the population of the elder in rural drops dramatically. And after 2022 the population of the elder in urban will more than it in rural. The greater scale of rural-urban migration is,the less proportion of the elderly population and the dependency ratio in the urban region is,and the situation appears opposite in the rural. In future,the proportion of the elderly population in the rural area will always be higher than that in urban area,and the gap showed a narrow trend rather than expanding. Then we will face greater pension burden and economic pressures in urban,and the challenges of home care and long-term care will be serious in rural.Based on this policy implications,the article put forward some policy suggestions.