Is the Demographic Dividend Really Ending in China?
Author(s): YUAN Xin, LIU Houlian, School of Economics, Naikai University
Pages: 35-43
Year: 2014 Issue: 6
Journal: Population & Economics
Keyword: demographic dividend; working-age population; human capital;
Abstract: This paper analysis two kinds of demographic dividend based on literature,then judge the existence of China’s demographic dividend by the trend of labor resource. The results show: the working-age population in China reached the peak of 940 millions in 2012,and will keep above 800 millions until the mid 2040 s,and the percent of the working-age population will hold above 60 before 2030 s. The working-age population is ageing,and the human capital of it gradually increases. Thus,China’s first demographic dividend is turning from agglomeration to reducing,and we gradually gain the structural demographic dividend. However,it will be more difficult to gain the demographic dividend,which depends on human capital and institutional reform.
Pages: 35-43
Year: 2014 Issue: 6
Journal: Population & Economics
Keyword: demographic dividend; working-age population; human capital;
Abstract: This paper analysis two kinds of demographic dividend based on literature,then judge the existence of China’s demographic dividend by the trend of labor resource. The results show: the working-age population in China reached the peak of 940 millions in 2012,and will keep above 800 millions until the mid 2040 s,and the percent of the working-age population will hold above 60 before 2030 s. The working-age population is ageing,and the human capital of it gradually increases. Thus,China’s first demographic dividend is turning from agglomeration to reducing,and we gradually gain the structural demographic dividend. However,it will be more difficult to gain the demographic dividend,which depends on human capital and institutional reform.
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