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gong zhong tong zhang yu qi dui tong zhang shui ping ying xiang wen ti yan jiu
Pages: 31-33
Year: Issue:  7
Journal: Xi'an Finance

Keyword:  inflation expectationsmonetary policy;
Abstract: 本文基于人民银行居民储户问卷调查时间序列数据,测度出通胀预期水平。通过建立协整模型,研究通胀预期和通胀水平之间的长期均衡关系,并进一步通过格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应分析研究了二者之间的短期动态关系。研究发现,通胀预期与通胀水平有显著的正向关系,物价上涨预期会在短期内推动物价上涨。在此基础上,本文提出了我国管理通胀预期的应对策略。
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