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Study on the Probability Flood Forecasting Model at Xixian Gauging Station of Huaihe River Basin
Author(s): 
Pages: 23-25
Year: Issue:  2
Journal: HYDROLOGY

Keyword:  贝叶斯概率预报先验密度似然函数后验密度息县水文站淮河;
Abstract: 应用美国天气局采用的由Roman Krzysztofowicz开发的贝叶斯统计理论建立概率水文预报理论框架,即以分布函数形式定量地描述水文预报不确定度,研究了淮河息县站流量概率预报模型.理论和经验表明,概率预报至少与确定性预报一样有价值,特别当预报不确定度较大时,概率预报比现行确定性预报具有更高的经济价值.
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