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The Inner Vulnerability of The Stock Market and The Government's Role: Theory and the Case of the Reduction of SOEs' Shareholdings
Author(s): 
Pages: 34-45,58
Year: Issue:  5
Journal: WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM

Keyword:  市场内在脆弱性勤勉投资投资惰性国有股减持股市泡沫;
Abstract: 本文采用了世代交迭的模型(Overlapping Generation Model)的分析框架,对资本市场(股票和信贷市场)的内在运行机制进行理论探讨.发现:一个没有套期保值机制(期权和期货和衍生工具)的以股票和信贷为资产增值和储蓄手段的资本市场具有内在的"脆弱性"(一旦原有市场均衡被打破,市场有持续下跌和持续上涨的倾向).而在有套期保值机制的股票市场中,这种脆弱性仍然存在.因此政府应该对股票和信贷市场实行"双锁定"的政策.最后本文在模型的基础上对近期国有股减持使股市大跌的事件进行了分析.认为国有股减持只是在刺破了股市的泡沫时稍微矫枉过正,它只是下跌的"第一推动力",并非股市大跌的根本原因.而股市内在的脆弱性才是此次大跌的根本原因.
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