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A probabilistic method for strong earthquake prediction
Author(s): 
Pages: 19-26
Year: Issue:  3
Journal: EARTHQUAKE

Keyword:  Logistic回归时空扫描概率预测强震;
Abstract: 介绍了利用Logistic回归进行地震危险性概率预测方法,对以新西兰地区相同时间段内地震活动性b值和等地震个数所覆盖空间区域的半径r为例,讨论了地震活动性参数的变化和强震发生的概率关系.研究表明,该地区强震发生的概率总体上与强震发生前一年半时间窗内的地震活动性资料计算的b值呈正相关关系,与r值呈负相关关系.该方法可以推广应用于研究其他异常分布和强震的概率统计关系.
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