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Applications of ARIMA Model on Predictive Incidence
Author(s): 
Pages: 23-26
Year: Issue:  1
Journal: CHINESE JOURNAL OF HOSPITAL STATISTICS

Keyword:  ARIMA模型时间序列发病率;
Abstract: 目的探讨季节性时间序列ARIMA预测模型在时间序列资料分析中的应用,建立HFRS发病率的预测模型.方法采用最大似然法估计模型参数,按照残差不相关原则、简洁原则确定模型的结构,依据AIC与BIC准则确定模型的阶数,建立ARIMA预测模型.结果季节自回归参数有统计学意义,方差估计值为4.230,AIC=309.523,BIC=311.78.对模型进行白噪声残差分析,x2检验表明ARIMA(0,1,0)(1,0,0)12模型是适合的.结论用所建模型对HFRS各月发病率进行了预测,结果表明ARIMA是一种短期内预测精度较高的预测模型.
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