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Oil Market Rebalancing: Still a Long Road Ahead amid Lingering "Cold" Prices ——2017 Review and 2018 Prospect for Oil Prices
Pages: 15-20+46
Year: Issue:  1
Journal: Petroleum & Petrochemical Today

Keyword:  international oil priceanalysis and predictionsupply-demand situationmacro-economygeopolitics;
Abstract: In 2017 world oil market saw a steady shift toward supply-demand rebalancing with draining inventory glut and soaring oil prices amid OPEC and major non-OPEC producers’ production cuts and fund speculations. In 2018, world oil market will see a continuing healthy growth in demand, but also the overall tightbalance fundamentals, given OPEC production cut agreement extended throughout the year and a big production growth from non-OPEC producers led by US. Furthermore, US Federal Reserve and other major central banks might tighten monetary policy further, supporting US dollar to go stronger and producing negative influence upon market liquidity and risk appetite, which could curb oil prices indirectly. The geopolitical risks accumulated in the Middle East will stimulate oil price volatility. It is estimated that, in 2018 average price of Brent crude will be $55~$65 per barrel.
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