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China’s Economic Outlook in 2016-2017: Updates
Pages: 1-10
Year: Issue:  6
Journal: Journal of Xiamen University(Arts & Social Sciences)

Keyword:  China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model(CQMM)macro-economyprivate investment growth;
Abstract: On September 2,2016,the"China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model"( CQMM) Project Team released its21 stCQMM forecast in Canberra,Australia. Under the CQMM,China’s economic growth is expected to continue edging down due to decelerating investment growth,weak exports growth and subdued consumption growth,while deflation risks will remain low. The GDP in 2016 is projected to grow by 6. 63%,a year-on-year increase of 0. 3 percentage points. The CPI is expected to increase by 2. 01%,an increase of 0. 57 percentage points over 2015. The project team simulated the macroeconomic effects of private investment growth. Policy simulation in this report shows that an increase of private investment growth would be helpful to raise the share of private investment and enable China to maintain its growth rate at about7% to 8%. On the contrary,a sharp fall of private investment growth would plunge China’s economic growth rate below its present level. As such,the following policy recommendations are presented: 1. Implement neutral monetary policy to stabilize economic growth; 2. Carry out expansionary fiscal policy to bolster China’s economic growth; 3. Lower market entry barriers and stabilize business expectations for private investors; 4. Take steps to support private financing; and 5. Carry out reforms on the taxation structure to relieve the business tax burden on enterprises.
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