Author(s): Chen Si-rong, Zhou Xiu-hua, He Hui-gen, Guangxi Climate Centre, Chongqing Municipal Climate Centre
Pages: 16-19+139
Year: 2016 Issue:  3
Journal: Journal of Meteorological Research and Application
Keyword:  DERF2.0; climate forecast; performance evaluation;
Abstract: Based on the hindcast data from 1983 to 2015 supplied by the National Climate Center second-generation monthly Dynamic Range Forecast operational system(DERF2.0) and the data of 87 meteorological stations of Guangxi, temperature and precipitation performance were evaluated and analyzed by using the anomaly coefficient( ACC), anomaly sign consistency rate( R) and short-term climate predication operational grading evaluation scores(Ps). The results show indicated that compared with temperature, the precipitation prediction performance of DERF2.0 was relatively poor. Both of their predictions have obvious monthly changes. The overall forecast of temperature and precipitation in summer are not good, but performance good in the precipitation anomaly. DERF2.0 has certain ability in predicting the typical flood of Guangxi in 1994, 1996, 1998, 1996 in June and July, while precipitation forecast error may be caused by the deviation of block system in high latitudes, so the mode still gets a lot to improve.