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Dynamic economic dispatch based on wind power forecast error interval
Author(s): 
Pages: 87-93
Year: Issue:  9
Journal: Electric Power Automation Equipment

Keyword:  economic dispatchwind powerpower fluctuationsforecast errorerror confidence interval;
Abstract: 由于风电的预测值与实际值存在偏差,含风电的动态经济调度需考虑风电预测的不确定性.根据风电场的历史预测误差数据,提出利用核密度估计建立某预测值条件下的误差概率分布,并以高斯核函数为例推导了相应的误差置信区间,将动态经济调度中涉及的不确定性问题转换为确定性区间问题,降低了调度模型的复杂度.实际数据分析表明核密度估计具有较高的拟合优度,能够避免高估或低估误差.最后通过含风电场的IEEE 30节点系统仿真验证了所提方法的有效性.
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