Author(s): Li Guojun, Hubei University of Police
Pages: 79-86
Year: 2016 Issue:  5
Journal: Journal of Hubei University of Police
Keyword:  Crime Analysis; Crime Forecasting; Crime Prevention; Policing Strategy; Policing Innovation; Predictive Policing;
Abstract: Development of rational choice theory, routine activity theory, crime pattern theory and environmental criminology, criminal geography and other criminology theories laid the theoretical foundation of crime forecasting. Advances in technology enhance the reliability and accuracy of crime forecasting, such as statistics theory, data science, computational science and geographic information system technology. Based on Intelligence-led Policing, police department applied crime forecasting for resource allocation and service planning, emphasizing on more proactive intervention to prevent and control crime. Predictive Policing strategy emerged gradually, its effectiveness has been verified in multinational police practice.Our Police Geographic Information System and public security intelligence system contains some crime forecasting and warning functions, some local public security units carried out crime forecasting to proactive policing practices in recent years, and obtained good results. Predictive Policing is consistent with the actual demand of our police work, it will promote the Intelligence-led Policing, its development path and experience provides reference resources of crime prevention and policing innovation for us.