Author(s): YE Xu-chun, LIU Jian, ZHANG Qi, YANG Xun-lin, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, CAS, Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Water Research Institute of Shandong Province
Pages: 103-109
Year: 2014 Issue:  7
Journal: Journal of Southwest Agricultural University
Keyword:  climate variability; trend analysis; runoff; evaporation ratio function; the Poyang Lake catchment;
Abstract: Based on the observed data of 14 meteorological stations and 5 hydrological stations across the Poyang Lake catchment during 1960-2007,this paper analyses the change trends of temperature,precipitation,potential evaporation and runoff depth by means of Mann-Kendall test.After that,a runoff model driven by precipitation and potential evaporation is established and the impact of climate change on the runoff is quantified for the sub-catchments of the Ganjiang,the Xinjiang and the Fuhe Rivers in different decades.The results show that during the period of 1960-2007the temperature and precipitation of the Poyang Lake catchment increased,while the calculated potential evapotranspiration decreased significantly.The changes in runoff were generally consistent with the change in catchment precipitation.The driving effect analysis reveals that compared to the 1960s,the climate changes played an important role in increasing runoff depth during the other decades.The most obvious driving effect occurred in the 1990s and led to an increase of the runoff depth by194.3mm-321.3mm,while the increase in the 2000s was just 32.7mm-106.5mm.In addition,because of the influence of precipitation anomalies and catchment storage in different decades,the Xinjiang River sub-catchment had the maximum increased runoff depth caused by climate change in the 1970s and the 1990s,while the Ganjiang River sub-catchment had the maximum increased runoff depth in the 1980s and the 2000s.