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An Analysis of the Operation Mechanism, Core Hypothesis, Forecast Validity and Application Dilemma in the Election Forecast Market
Author(s): 
Pages: 23-32
Year: Issue:  3
Journal: Taiwan Research Quarterly

Keyword:  选举预测市场选举预测市场政治期货;
Abstract: 选举预测市场是因预测选举结果而形成的政治期货市场,具有发现和聚合信息的功能,其价格则被视为市场交易者整体对选举结果的或然性推测.本文探讨了选举预测市场的核心假设及其争议,发现其存在理论自洽和逻辑严密性上的困境;并基于“后见之明”的视角分析了选举预测市场价格与实际选举结果的实证数据,比较了选举预测市场与民意调查在选举预测上的准确性,验证发现选举预测市场的优势并不明显;最后,探讨了选举预测市场信息功能受限以及未能成为主流选情分析、选举研究、选举决策工具的原因.
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