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Quantitative evaluations of fractional contribution of human activities and climate changes to the streamflow variations across the East River basin
Author(s): 
Pages: 136-145
Year: Issue:  4
Journal: Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

Keyword:  streamflow processeselastic coefficient methodW-ANNclimate changeshuman activi-tieshydrological modelingEast River basin;
Abstract: Precipitation,daily temperature and evaporation data from 28 meteorological stations and 4 e-vaporation stations,and daily streamflow data from 4 hydrological stations during 1959 -2000 are ana-lyzed by using the elastic coefficient method and the W-ANN model.Besides,construction of water reser-voirs and land use changes are also considered in the analysis to investigate fractional contributions of cli-mate changes and human activities as driving factors to streamflow variations.The results indicate that:① the change point of the streamflow of the East River Basin occurred in 1972,the streamflow was larger after 1972 than before 1972;② The increased precipitation and decreased evaporation resulted in the in-crease of streamflow.The fractional contribution of climate change to the increase of the streamflow is 0.27 ~0.77;③ Human activities led to the increase of the streamflow via changes of land use.Mean-while,the construction of water reservoirs or hydraulic facilities tends to modify the annual distribution of the streamflow significantly.The fractional contribution of human activities to the increase of the stream-flow is 0.23 ~0.73 and the fractional contribution decreases from the upper to the lower East River ba-sin.This research has theoretical and practical contribution to human knowledge of the driving factors be-hind streamflow variations and also to the scientific water resources management of the East River basin.
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