Author(s): WAN Bai-wu, Systems Engineering Institute, Xi’an Jiaotong University
Pages: 1132-1142
Year: 2015 Issue:  9
Journal: Control Theory & Applications
Keyword:  Cybernetics; macroeconomic model; empirical forecasting model; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; agent-based computational economic model; system identification; identifiability; variable-structure system; agentbased model of the European economy EURACE; simulation study;
Abstract: By the identification theory in Engineering Cybernetics the paper analyses and comments the macroeconomic system modeling in several important aspects:prior knowledge,hypothesis proposed,data used for modeling,constancy of mechanism,identifiability,causality,etc.The paper presents views on two controversial issues,two censures and Lucas critique of macroeconomic modeling in academic circle.By the results of review,the paper is pessimistic about whether revised current models can predict the next crisis.Therefore,the agent-based model of the European economy EURACE is briefly introduced in this paper.Finally the paper summaries the further research including the necessity to combine dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model with the agent-based computational(ACE) model,to rethink the macroeconomics,to strengthen the study of the variable-structure system identification and so on.