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SCENARIO PREDICTION OF FUTURE NUTRIENT CONCENTRATION IN THE YELLOW SEA AND EAST CHINA SEA
Author(s): 
Pages: 983-994
Year: Issue:  5
Journal: Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica

Keyword:  nutrient concentrationscenario predictionphysical-biological modeldownscalingYellow Sea and East China Sea;
Abstract: Using modern data(1951—2000) of average wind filed and heat flux, we applied FGOALS(the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) model to run a downscaling three-dimensional physical-biological scheme in combination with river nutrient load, and predicted the future(2026—2075) distribution of nutrients in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. Results show that nutrient concentration will increase significantly in adjacent estuaries, causing heavier eutrophication in both future scenarios. Two scenarios were played: GO(Global Orchestration) and AM(Adapting Mosaic). In GO scenario, DIN concentration will increase in the central Yellow Sea rises in summer due to large increase of river DIN load. In AM scenario, N/P ratio will decline, as the river DIP load increases sharply; in summer, DIN concentration in the central Yellow Sea will decline in the surface and rises in the bottom layer. Through sensitive experiment and budget analysis, we assessed relative contribution to the variation from hydrodynamics and river nutrient load. Results show that increase in nutrient export by rivers will be the major contributor. Nutrient budget analysis shows that advection and mixing will promote the nutrient concentration in the Yellow Sea. Summer biomass will increase and result in more nutrient-release in remineralization from sinking particulate organic matter in the bottom layer, then accumulate and stratify there seasonally. The offshore region of the Changjiang River estuary is mainly affected by Changjiang River plume. The net primary production will increase correspondingly to consume more nutrients.
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