Author(s): ZHANG Zhijiao, LIU Renzhi, DU Xi, State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University
Pages: 50-58
Year: 2015 Issue:  S1
Journal: Journal of Basic Science and Engineering
Keyword:  abrupt atmospheric pollution events; regional-scale environmental risk; relative risk assessment; multi-puff atmospheric dispersion model;
Abstract: Abrupt atmospheric pollution risk assessment provides a helpful tool in decision-making of risk prevention and mitigation in a region. However,previous assessments paid more attentions to a local scale( e. g. a chemical factory or an industry park) and few considered complex risks from multi-stressors to multi-receptors or even transboundary risks. Herein,a Regional-scale Accidental Atmospheric Pollution Risk Assessment( RAAPRA) method is proposed which adopts a risk ranking procedure to characterize multiple complex risk routes of " stressor-receptorimpact" using quantitative tools( e. g. the multi-puff model). The matrix technique,instantaneous atmospheric quality model,and Arc GIS tools are used to refine the risk ranking procedure within the framework of a relative risk model of the regional-scale ecological risk assessment. Using the RAAPRA method,a risk map for a coastal city was generated. The results show that there are two high risk regions,four medium risk regions and eight high risk regions.The range of risk scores is relatively wide( 0-808) and all risk zones differ obviously in spatial pattern. Major risk sources were identified as enterprises within petroleum processing,coking and chemical industries,which mainly pose abrupt atmospheric pollution threats to residential areas and nature reserves. The uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis were completed by Monte Carlo method to verify the robustness and stability of the new method. The results show that the mean values of the distributions are similar to the risk forecast,and risk sources are the main contribution to the parameters uncertainty of the model.