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Comprehensive optimized GM(1,1) model and application for short term forecasting of Chinese energy consumption and production
Pages: 794-801
Year: Issue:  4
Journal: Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics

Keyword:  COGM(11)grey predictionenergy consumptionbackground value;
Abstract: In order to improve prediction accuracy of the grey prediction model and forecast China energy consumption and production in a short term, this paper proposes a novel com-prehensively optimized GM(1,1) model, also named COGM(1,1), based on the grey modeling mechanism. First, the relationship of the background value formula and its whitenization equation is analyzed and a new method optimizing background values is proposed to eliminate systemic errors in the modeling process. Second, the solving process of the new model is derived. For parameter estimation, a set of auxiliary parameters are used to change grey equation’s form. Then, original parameters are re-stored by an equations system. After solving the whitenization equation, initial value in time response function is established by least errors criteria. Final y, a numerical case and comparison with other grey prediction models are made to testify the new model’s effectiveness, and the computational results show that the COGM(1,1) model has a better property and achieves higher precision. The new model is used to forecast China energy con-sumption and production, and the ability of energy self-sufficiency is further analyzed. Results indicate that gaps between consump-tion and production in future are predicted to decline.
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