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A MODELING METHOD FOR A KIND OF NONLINEAR MODELS AND ITS APPLICATION IN FORECASTING THE RAILWAY PASSENGER FLOWRATE
Author(s): 
Pages: 103-111
Year: Issue:  1
Journal: Control Theory & Applications

Keyword:  非线性模型自回归模型时序分析时间序列分析非线性系统模型识别Andersen长期预报极限环延迟参数;
Abstract: In this paper a variety of time series nonlinear models are introduced and the idea and modeling method of the threshold autoregression are discussed in detail. Using threshold autoregression, the railway passenger flowrate data are analysed and some forecasting are given. The monthly forecasting accuracy for 1982 and 1983 is greater than 91.9% and 91.4% respectively. This will be of great help in running China’s railway in a more scientific way. The method can also be applied to those fields in which periodic data often exist.
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