Climate Change on Runoff Process in Huangshuigou River Basin
Author(s): WEI Guang-hui
Pages: 46-52,57
Year: 2015 Issue: 1
Journal: Journal of Zhejiang Water Conservancy and Hydropower College
Keyword: climate change; runoff; M-K test; trend analysis; Huangshuigou River Basin;
Abstract: Research on the response of climate change to river runoff is of great significance for river basin water resources planning , utilization and ecological environment protection .In this paper , Mann-Kendall test , R/S method and linear regression method are adopted to analyze the variation characteristics of temperature , precipitation and runoff in Huangshui River Basin from 1961 to 2013.The results show that:in the recent 53 years, temperature, precipitation and runoff show an increasing trend, the growth rate respectively is 0.034 5 ℃/a, 0.793 mm/a and 1.88 ×106 m3/a, the corresponding mutation year respectively is 1997, 1989 and 1996;the variable Hurst index are all more than 0.5, which will continue to increase in the future; sensitivity analysis shows that , when the rainfall is constant , increasing the temperature of 1 ℃, annual runoff will increase 12 .8%.When the temperature is constant , increasing the precipitation of 10%, runoff will increase 4.5%, which indicates that the response of precipitation and temperature to the runoff are both obvious .
Pages: 46-52,57
Year: 2015 Issue: 1
Journal: Journal of Zhejiang Water Conservancy and Hydropower College
Keyword: climate change; runoff; M-K test; trend analysis; Huangshuigou River Basin;
Abstract: Research on the response of climate change to river runoff is of great significance for river basin water resources planning , utilization and ecological environment protection .In this paper , Mann-Kendall test , R/S method and linear regression method are adopted to analyze the variation characteristics of temperature , precipitation and runoff in Huangshui River Basin from 1961 to 2013.The results show that:in the recent 53 years, temperature, precipitation and runoff show an increasing trend, the growth rate respectively is 0.034 5 ℃/a, 0.793 mm/a and 1.88 ×106 m3/a, the corresponding mutation year respectively is 1997, 1989 and 1996;the variable Hurst index are all more than 0.5, which will continue to increase in the future; sensitivity analysis shows that , when the rainfall is constant , increasing the temperature of 1 ℃, annual runoff will increase 12 .8%.When the temperature is constant , increasing the precipitation of 10%, runoff will increase 4.5%, which indicates that the response of precipitation and temperature to the runoff are both obvious .
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