Structural Effects of Factor Allocation——China Case and the International Comparison
Author(s): XIN Chao, ZHANG Ping, YUAN Fu-hua, Graduate School CASS, Institute of Economics CASS
Pages: 5-17
Year: 2015 Issue: 2
Journal: China Industrial Economics
Keyword: structural effects; factor allocation; structural reduction of growth; capital stock;
Abstract: This paper promotes the research on the structural impacts from capital and labor allocation in China by using the multi-sector model of growth accounting.It confirms that there are serious deficiencies in the official statistical method for industrial investments,which distort calculations of industrial capital stock and the influence of capital a Eocation.By excluding the real estate industry,the result shows a dramatic improvement of capital allocation since the middle of 1990s but a serious misallocation of capital that resulted from the 4 trillion stimulus plan.The study about the effect of labor aEocation(SGL) shows an average impact of 0.63 percentage points on growth,and it is related positively with both economic growth and TFP,and reveals ten-year political cycles originating from cyclic reforms.The results of international comparison indicate that there are three periods for SGLs,in which SGLs are high,medium and low respectively.The authors predict that China’ SGL will remain in the high period until 2017,and the period of 2017—2023 is the dramatic transition stage leading to the medium SGL and that China’s economy wiU suffer significant pressures arising from the structural slowdown.The low period wiE emerge after 2030,then no longer will SGL be conspicuous.These findings wiE improve the estimations of growth trend of China’s economy and contribute to subsequent research.
Pages: 5-17
Year: 2015 Issue: 2
Journal: China Industrial Economics
Keyword: structural effects; factor allocation; structural reduction of growth; capital stock;
Abstract: This paper promotes the research on the structural impacts from capital and labor allocation in China by using the multi-sector model of growth accounting.It confirms that there are serious deficiencies in the official statistical method for industrial investments,which distort calculations of industrial capital stock and the influence of capital a Eocation.By excluding the real estate industry,the result shows a dramatic improvement of capital allocation since the middle of 1990s but a serious misallocation of capital that resulted from the 4 trillion stimulus plan.The study about the effect of labor aEocation(SGL) shows an average impact of 0.63 percentage points on growth,and it is related positively with both economic growth and TFP,and reveals ten-year political cycles originating from cyclic reforms.The results of international comparison indicate that there are three periods for SGLs,in which SGLs are high,medium and low respectively.The authors predict that China’ SGL will remain in the high period until 2017,and the period of 2017—2023 is the dramatic transition stage leading to the medium SGL and that China’s economy wiU suffer significant pressures arising from the structural slowdown.The low period wiE emerge after 2030,then no longer will SGL be conspicuous.These findings wiE improve the estimations of growth trend of China’s economy and contribute to subsequent research.
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