Author(s): LI Hong-bing, HE Wei, WANG Hong-ge, TIAN Hui, Baoji Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Pages: 639-641
Year: 2015 Issue:  5
Journal: Occupation and Health
Keyword:  Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS); Epidemiological characteristics; Autoregressive integrated moving average model; Prediction(ARIMA);
Abstract: [Objective]To understand the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Baoji City from 2005-2013,and establish the prediction model for HFRS incidence.[Methods]Descriptive epidemiology was conducted on the incidence data of HFRS in Baoji City from 2005-2013,then the prediction model was established.[Results]A total of 2 233 HFRS cases were reported from 2005 to 2013. The incidence rate was 6.67/100 000,and the overall fatality was 0.54%.The seasonality characteristics of the HFRS was obvious. Most cases were peasants(1 799),accounting for 88.54%,and the 40-59 years age group had the highest incidence(50.52%,1 128 cases). The male to female ratio of the HFRS was 3 ∶1. Prediction model was established by the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model which showed that the HFRS was on a rising trend in recent years. [Conclusion]There is a tendency of rising in the prevalence of HFRS in Baoji City,therefore some prevention and control measures should take in key areas and groups. The ARIMA model has practical values in the prediction of the HFRS.