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Prediction of Carbon Emission Intensity in Shandong
Author(s): 
Pages: 137-141
Year: Issue:  5
Journal: Journal of Gansu Sciences

Keyword:  Scenario analysisMarkov modelCarbon emission intensityEnergy consumption structure;
Abstract: 节能减排是当前中国可持续发展的重要内容之一,研究山东省碳排放强度波动状况,有利于针对性地降低山东省的碳排放强度.采用情景分析法,预测了不同情景下2015年山东省的GDP和一次能源消费总量,并构建基于转移矩阵的马尔可夫模型对山东省2015年能源消费结构进行预测,在此基础上研究6种不同情景下山东省碳排放强度的状况.研究结果表明:优化能源结构和强化政府能源监管是降低山东省碳排放强度的有效措施.
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