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Southern regional solar power generation projects investment risk evaluation
Author(s): 
Pages: 1429-1435
Year: Issue:  10
Journal: Rural Energy

Keyword:  southern regionalsolar power generationinvestment riskreal options;
Abstract: It is well-known that humanity is facing two serious problems. One is the depletion of the fossil energy and the other one is the deterioration of the ecological environment. Development and utilization of renewable energy sources like photovoltaic(PV) power generation can not only ensure the world’s energy supply, but also can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect the ecological environment of human beings. Based on real options theory, this paper develops a investment decision-model and a risk assessment framework for PV power generation projects in China.In the case of grid-connected PV generation demonstration project, this paper carry out investment decision simulation from the uncertainty of electricity prices and the CDM transaction price mechanism. The simulation results show that the model can provide investors an investment reference,which can improve the scientificalness of the decision-making process. Meanwhile, it can be used as quantitative analysis tools for policy makers to make a reasonable investment policy.
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