Method for Time-varying Schedule Risk Forecasting of Underground Structure Group Based on Bayesian Theory
Author(s): ZHANG She-rong, DU Cheng-bo, SA Wen-qi, WANG Chao, State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University
Pages: 1131-1137
Year: 2014 Issue: 5
Journal: Journal of System Simulation
Keyword: underground structure group; time-varying schedule risk; Bayes; real-time simulation; time-varying construction efficiency;
Abstract: Time-varying effect of working efficiency during the actual construction of underground structure group is one of important factors that affect the work of schedule risk forecasting, but the present methods of schedule forecasting have not properly taken into account it. A method for time-varying schedule risk forecasting of underground structure group based on Bayesian theory was proposed, which regarded the mean and variance of the working time of unit work load as time-varying random variables. The prior information of the working time of unit work load was ceaselessly modified and improved by utilizing the sample information of the working time on the job site, so that the posterior estimate of it under the influence of actual time-varying working efficiency was obtained. On that basis forecasting of the remaining working time of each procedure under construction was realized and so was the time-varying schedule risk forecasting by means of the flexible network planning simulation method. At last, compared with the schedule forecasting method of real-time simulation, the application of the method addressed by the authors in the schedule risk forecasting of underground structure group was described through an engineering case and the feasibility and advantage of the method was verified.
Pages: 1131-1137
Year: 2014 Issue: 5
Journal: Journal of System Simulation
Keyword: underground structure group; time-varying schedule risk; Bayes; real-time simulation; time-varying construction efficiency;
Abstract: Time-varying effect of working efficiency during the actual construction of underground structure group is one of important factors that affect the work of schedule risk forecasting, but the present methods of schedule forecasting have not properly taken into account it. A method for time-varying schedule risk forecasting of underground structure group based on Bayesian theory was proposed, which regarded the mean and variance of the working time of unit work load as time-varying random variables. The prior information of the working time of unit work load was ceaselessly modified and improved by utilizing the sample information of the working time on the job site, so that the posterior estimate of it under the influence of actual time-varying working efficiency was obtained. On that basis forecasting of the remaining working time of each procedure under construction was realized and so was the time-varying schedule risk forecasting by means of the flexible network planning simulation method. At last, compared with the schedule forecasting method of real-time simulation, the application of the method addressed by the authors in the schedule risk forecasting of underground structure group was described through an engineering case and the feasibility and advantage of the method was verified.
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