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Critical Soil Moisture for Debris Flow Initiation and Its Application in Forecasting
Pages: 73-80
Year: Issue:  2
Journal: Journal of Earch Sciences and Environment

Keyword:  debris flowforecastingcritical soil moistureporositypermeability coefficientcoefficient of curvaturerainfall;
Abstract: Most of traditional debris flow forecasting methods are based on indirect variables such as antecedent and real-time rainfalls.But the key factor influencing directly the debris flow initiation is soil moisture,which is more reliable for debris flow forecasting.Firstly,the concept of critical soil moisture for debris flow initiation was defined; secondly, based on the experimental and observation data of debris flow initiation at home and abroad,the empirical relationships between critical soil moisture and permeability coefficient,porosity,coefficient of paritcle curvature were obtained by the means of step-wise regression analysis;finally,the forcasting method for debris flow based on critical soil moisture and real-time rainfall was proposed.The method was tested and verified by the debris flow happened at Jiangjiagou of Dongchuan,Yunnan on 1 6 July,1 999.The results show that the reliability and accuracy of new forcasting method is better than the traditional forecast method for debris flow based on critical line and occurrence line.
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