Author(s): RUAN Cheng-lan, ZHANG Jun-fei, SONG Hai-yan, DONG Jing, CHEN Zhao-lin, CHEN Xi, LIU Bo, CHEN Cong-xin, Department of Infectious Diseases, 105th Hospital, Affiliated to Anhui Medical University
Pages: 537-540
Year: 2014 Issue:  6
Journal: Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
Keyword:  Liver failure; Prognosis; Logistic models;
Abstract: Objective To investigate prognostic factors for liver failure,and to establish a logistic regression model for predicting the prognosis of liver failure.Methods The clinical data of patients with hepatic failure were collected.The binary Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the associations between mortality and prognostic factors and to establish regression models,and then ROC curve was drawn to determine the optimal threshold of the prognostic model.Results Univariate Logistic regression analysis showed that increased levels of alpha fetal protein(AFP) and serum total cholesterol were the protective factors for the prognosis;older age,elevated levels of serum total bilirubin(TBIL) and urea,increased international normalized ratio(INR),hepatic encephalopathy,upper gastrointestinal bleeding and ascites were risk factors for the prognosis.In multivariate logistic regression analysis,the independent factors predicting prognosis were age(OR1= 7.207,OR2= 21.251,P < 0.001),serum total bilirubin(OR = 0.347,P = 0.002),serum total cholesterol(OR = 3.769,P < 0.001) and ascites(OR = 0.142,P = 0.002).The area under the ROC curve was 0.893 and the predicted accuracy rate of the model was 86.96%.Conclusions The regression model established in the study can predict the prognosis of patients with hepatic failure with high prediction accuracy.