On China′s Coal Demand Forecast Model based on the Trend Combination
Author(s): ZHANG Jin-suo, FENG Xue, ZOU Shao-hui
Pages: 51-56
Year: 2014 Issue: 6
Journal: Commercial Research
Keyword: trend extrapolation model; ARMA model; coal demand; combination forecast;
Abstract: Coal is the largest energy resources in China , so accurately predicting dynamic trend in coal demand has an important significance for guaranteeing the balance between energy supply and its demand to avoid the energy supply risks, and affirm economic and social sustainable development in China .Due to the nonlinear and uncertain characteris-tics of coal consumption , a single coal demand forecast model cannot better anticipate change trend of coal demand , which leads to the low prediction accuracy .Utilizing ARMA model to determine its uncertainty trend , and encircling the non-stationary characteristics of changes of actual consumption of coal in China to explore the deterministic trend of de -mand for coal , the paper establishes China′s coal demand forecast model based on trend combination .The application of this model depicts that it is more useful and accurate than the existing combination forecast model .
Pages: 51-56
Year: 2014 Issue: 6
Journal: Commercial Research
Keyword: trend extrapolation model; ARMA model; coal demand; combination forecast;
Abstract: Coal is the largest energy resources in China , so accurately predicting dynamic trend in coal demand has an important significance for guaranteeing the balance between energy supply and its demand to avoid the energy supply risks, and affirm economic and social sustainable development in China .Due to the nonlinear and uncertain characteris-tics of coal consumption , a single coal demand forecast model cannot better anticipate change trend of coal demand , which leads to the low prediction accuracy .Utilizing ARMA model to determine its uncertainty trend , and encircling the non-stationary characteristics of changes of actual consumption of coal in China to explore the deterministic trend of de -mand for coal , the paper establishes China′s coal demand forecast model based on trend combination .The application of this model depicts that it is more useful and accurate than the existing combination forecast model .
Related Articles