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Research of Uncertainty hydrological forecasts Applied in the Three Gorges Reservoir
Pages: 37-39
Year: Issue:  12
Journal: Water Saving Irrigation

Keyword:  multi-input single-output modelXin'an jiang modeluncertainty hydrological forecastingThree Gorges Reservoir;
Abstract: 结合基于经典贝叶斯统计推断理论的MCMC(Markov Chain Monte Carlo)方法与多输入单输出模型,建立了不确定性水文预报模型,并将该模型应用于长江三峡水库,依据实验结果可得出以下结论:①较传统方法而言,不确定性水文预报可更好的避免由于模型的不确定性而引入的误差;②应用于三峡水库入库流量预报,实验结果表明预测流量可很好地覆盖实际观测流量,取得理想预报结果.
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