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Simulation and Evaluation of the Risk of International EPC Project Based on MCM Crystal Ball Model
Author(s): 
Pages: 121-123
Year: Issue:  11
Journal: Yellow River

Keyword:  international engineering EPC projectRiskMCM Monte Carlo Simulation Methodcrystal ball model;
Abstract: This paper established a risk evaluation index system mainly from the aspects of environment,technology,finance,schedule control and others,through the identification of International EPC Project Risk Factors. The simulated evaluation of EPC Project’s risk in Ecuador del west hy-dropower station based on Monte Carlo simulation method (MCM)’s third party software-crystal ball model. The result shows that the technical risks account for 31. 2%,operational risks 26. 1% and economic risks 22. 4% of the,operational risks having the maximum negative impact on a year gains against the risk loss. It shows through examples that the application of MCM crystal ball model is convenience,high accuracy,applicable to international EPC project risk evaluation.
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