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Study on the prediction of pneumoconiosis by time sequence analysis
Author(s): WANG Wenyong, CHEN Zheng, CHEN Zheng
Pages: 27-
29
Year: 2001
Issue:
2
Journal: CHINA OCCUPATIONAL MEDICINE
Keyword: 尘肺流行预测; 时间序列分析法;
Abstract: Objective To study the historical prevalent regularity and medium long term prediction of pneumoconiosis. Methods The time sequence of pneumoconiosis prevalence were recounted to tendency item, periodic item and random item with the methods of linear tendency analysis, stepwise regressive periodic analysis and stationary random sequence analysis. All items were added up and the predictions were carried out.Results The prevalent regularity in pneumoconiosis time sequence during 1960-1998 in Fujian province was revealed. The predictive values of pneumoconiosis prevalence were then attained during 1999-2007 in Fujian.Conclusion The method of time sequence analysis might be applicable to the prediction of pneumoconiosis prevalence.
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