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An adaptive ship motion prediction method based on parameter estimation
Author(s): 
Pages: 759-766
Year: Issue:  7
Journal: Journal of Ship Mechanics

Keyword:  自适应算法预报最小二乘估计模型拟合;
Abstract: 运动预报是部分舰船系统的重要组成部分.为了有效地解决这一问题,文章提出了一种基于海浪峰值频率估计的自适应舰船运动预报方法.在舰船运动与海浪激励的建模基础上,建立了基于最小二乘估计的自复位海浪峰值频率估计器.采用自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型拟合方法预报舰船运动,并通过海浪峰值频率估计值自适应调节ARIMA模型的采样周期,提高了复杂海况下对舰船运动的预报能力.该方法与常规ARIMA模型方法、反向传播神经网络方法的仿真对比结果表明了该方法在解决舰船动态预报问题上的良好精度和鲁棒性.
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