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Medium and long term load forecasting considering data uncertainty
Author(s): 
Pages: 123-126,132
Year: Issue:  7
Journal: Relay

Abstract: 中长期负荷预测时间跨度较长,其基础数据受诸多因素影响,具有不确定性和不可控性.引入蒙特卡罗算法和区间算法处理中长期负荷预测中的数据不确定性问题.根据历史年度实际情况,假定基础数据在某一范围内存在不确定性,采用蒙特卡罗算法构建了计算流程,可以得到界于某一区间的负荷预测值;采用区间算法描述基础数据的不确定性,针对区间算法固有的过估计问题,通过推导适合的公式,可以避免产生过度保守的结果,只需一次计算,就...
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