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Application of ARIMA model in seasonal time-series prediction for outpatient
Author(s): 
Pages: 239-241
Year: Issue:  3
Journal: Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics

Abstract: 目的 探讨某院5年门诊量的季节变动趋势. 方法 通过分析医院时间序列资料的变动规律,使用ARIMA(p,d,q)模型分析门诊量的动态变化. 结果 医院5年门诊量呈上升趋势及具有明显周期变化,预测值和实际值拟合程度高,相对误差在5.5%~6%之间. 结论 时间序列模型对于门诊人次发展变化规律的分析有较好的适应性和实用性.表明运用科学的方法,可以有效提高门诊管理水平.
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