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Applications of ARIMA(p,d,q) model on predicting mensual quantity of outpatients from different counties
Pages: 202-206
Year: Issue:  3
Journal: Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics

Keyword:  ARIMA模型时间序列门诊量预测;
Abstract: 目的 方法运用SAS 9.0软件对原始数据进行均值零化、正态性检验,并通过差分使原始序列平稳,采用条件最小二乘法估计模型参数,依据AIC和SBC准则确定模型阶数,建立ARIMA预测模型. 结果 具体的ARIMA预测模型为(1-0.461 96Β)(1-Β)xt=(1-0.641 93Β12)αt . 结论 所建立模型ARIMA(1,1,12)可以对本院总的月门诊量及部分地区来源的月门诊量进行准确预...
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