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Application of a time-magnitude prediction model for earthquakes
Pages: 138-145
Year: Issue:  2

Keyword:  earthquake predictionrobustnesstime- magnitude model;
Abstract: In this paper we discuss the physical meaning of the magnitude-time model parameters for earthquake prediction. The gestation process for strong earthquake in all eleven seismic zones in China can be described by the magnitude-time prediction model using the computations of the parameters of the model. The average model parameter values for China are: b = 0.383, c=0.154, d = 0.035, B = 0.844, C = -0.209, and D = 0.188. The robustness of the model parameters is estimated from the variation in the minimum magnitude of the transformed data, the spatial extent, and the temporal period. Analysis of the spatial and temporal suitability of the model indicates that the computation unit size should be at least 4°×4° for seismic zones in North China, at least 3°×3° in Southwest and Northwest China, and the time period should be as long as possible.
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