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Applications of ARIMA model on predictive workload of out-patient department
Author(s): 
Pages: 24-26
Year: Issue:  1
Journal: CHINESE JOURNAL OF HOSPITAL STATISTICS

Keyword:  ARIMA模型时间序列门诊量预测;
Abstract: 目的探讨季节性时间序列ARIMA预测模型在时间序列资料分析中的应用,建立门诊量的预测模型.方法采用最小二乘法估计模型参数,通过对数转换及差分方法使原始序列平稳,按照残差不相关原则、简洁原则确定模型结构,依据AIC和SBC准则确定模型阶数,建立ARIMA预测模型.结果季节自回归参数有统计学意义.方差估计值为0.001956,AIC=-443.26,SBC=-437.51. 对模型进行白噪声残差分析,拟合优度统计量表中表明ARIMA的估计具体模型为: (1-B)(1-B12)Zt=(1-0.24269B)(1-0.30096B12)at 是适合的.结论用所建立模型对月门诊量进行预测,结果表明ARIMA是一种短期预测精度较高的预测模型.
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